Wisconsin month on month employment (nonfarm payroll) grows at an annualized 4.8% in January, but remains 5.1% below January 2020 levels. NFP employment levels for December are benchmark-revised up by 51.7 thousand, or about 1.8%. Details from DWD.
The five year constant maturity Treasury yield has risen; but after accounting for the estimated term premium, the increase is much more modest, if not negative. Moreover, expected 5 year inflation has not on net moved much over 2021.
Despite the recent runup in oil prices, measures of expectations do not spike.
Forecasted GDP rises yet again, with considerable dispersion.
Had we run a 2% price level target since December 2007 (the beginning of the previous recession).
As of March 7th:
A typical market-based measure of expected inflation is the inflation breakeven calculated by subtracting the TIPS yield from Treasury yield at corresponding maturities. The breakeven spread is shown as the blue line in Figure 1.
The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the ?NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
The COVID-19 pandemic has kept economists busy analyzing many aspects of economic side of the coronavirus impact. This note is meant to present an overview of what economists have analyzed regarding the implications of two of the main components of the CARES Act that affect individuals: the increased UI benefits and the stimulus checks. We present the findings from the literature on these two policies with an eye on potential future governmental interventions.
Taken together, these two components have been effective at providing stimulus and lowering poverty. In the aggregate,?Kaplan et al. (2020) (PDF)?find that the initial UI benefits and stimulus payments boosted aggregate consumption by 2 percentage points, while?Bayer et al. (2020)?show that the CARES transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by up to 5 percentage points.
Complete note here.